A brand's shipments are not its sales.
Consumer brands can sustain favorable results for several quarters through period-end channel loading, deferred deductions, and elevated marketing spend. They also generate more external data than almost any other sector, which allows those results to be tested.
What the module checks
01
Sell-in versus sell-through
Shipments by retailer compared with point-of-sale data and weeks-of-supply trends, where that data is available from the target, its retailers, or your team. A growing gap means the channel is carrying inventory that may come back.
02
Period-end and distributor activity
Shipment spikes to distributors at quarter-end and year-end, and distributors connected to the company.
03
Retailer deductions
Chargebacks, markdown allowances, damages, and returns as a share of gross sales, benchmarked against the category.
04
Inventory aging
Stock by batch and expiry date against retailer shelf-life requirements, with the likely write-down sized.
05
Direct-to-consumer cohorts
E-commerce and payment platform data reconciled to the bank and the model. Customer acquisition cost payback and repeat purchase rates by cohort.
06
Amazon
First-party and third-party sales, unauthorized sellers, price erosion, and review authenticity.
07
Social and creator dependence
Concentration of sales on a few creators or the founder's personal channels, follower authenticity, and whether those contracts transfer with the business.
08
Concentration
Reliance on a single retailer or contract manufacturer, change-of-control clauses, and ownership of formulations.
09
Regulatory
Product and ingredient compliance, adverse events, recalls, and marketing-claims exposure. For cosmetics, this includes MoCRA registration and listing and state ingredient bans.
What it gives your team
A view of real consumer demand rather than channel loading, and a sized estimate of the returns, deductions, and write-downs that the seller's numbers do not yet show.
Discuss a transaction under LOI.
Share the sector, the deal size, and the end of exclusivity. We respond within one business day with an assessment of fit and the proposed scope of the report.